Michaelsen Community in Felida Washington2009: Year of bottom line?
Money will be the common denominator for major issues
Wednesday, December 31 8:15 p.m.
BY JEFFREY MIZECOLUMBIAN STAFF WRITER
Work continues on “Michaelsen,” a housing development being built by Manor Homes off Northwest 116th Street. Construction started after 10 of the 14 homes in the development were sold. (Zachary Kaufman/The Columbian)
One common denominator will shape Clark County’s top stories for 2009: money.-- Housing markets will struggle to rebound from the worst year in memory.-- State agencies, schools and cities will cope with the sting of budget cuts.-- Big-ticket projects, including the Columbia River Crossing, will scramble to refine financial plans.With unemployment and foreclosures rising and credit markets and consumer spending tanking, the pursuit of the almighty dollar will be front and center in 2009.Many of these big stories will continue to unfold in 2009 without final resolution. For example, work on replacing the Interstate 5 Bridge has been under way for much of this decade, but no one expects a final plan, complete with dedicated funding, to be sewn up by the end of this year.With that in mind, here’s a look at what to expect in 2009:Housing market
Real estate agents, homeowners with adjustable mortgages and others would just as soon forget 2008. Will 2009 bring a rebound or more misery? Is the worst is still to come? Home sales fell 33.3 percent in 2008, a year when prices dropped and foreclosures increased. But some real estate experts say there is hope for home sellers as buyers begin whittling away at the housing stockpile.“I am hopeful that by mid-2009, we’ll see some definite signs of improvement,” said Sandy Hendrick, executive director of the Clark County Association of Realtors.Hendrick expects softening home prices and abundant selection to rev up the local home-selling scene, a jump start that others say will be helped along by low interest rates on mortgages and a $7,500 federal tax write-off being offered to first-time buyers who purchase homes before July 1, 2009.“It looks like the government is going to stimulate refinancing and purchasing,” said Kerry Greenwald, owner of Creekside Mortgage in Vancouver.“If you can borrow money at 4.5 percent and get the government incentive, buying begins to look attractive,” Greenwald said. He also expects 2009 to be a banner year for mortgage refinancing.National reports caution that the optimism of real estate experts could be premature, given the country’s deepening recession and mounting job losses.Bridge planning
Last year was a big milestone for the multiyear process toward easing chronic congestion for trucks and commuters, with local governments on both sides of the Columbia River signing onto a plan to replace the aging I-5 Bridge and bring light rail to Vancouver.This will be a year of refinement, with bridge planners working to pin down the number of lanes, the design of the bridge and any architectural flourishes that might ease apprehension of those who see the current proposal as overly utilitarian, entirely unimaginative or just plain ugly.Bridge experts also will sharpen a whole series of financial issues, re-examining construction costs and refining tolling scenarios and working with state and federal officials who will need to finance a large portion of a project expected to cost anywhere from $3.5 billion to $4.2 billion.The big decisions on tolling and financing are still a year or more away. A federal record of decision, a bureaucratic blessing of the project, isn’t expected until sometime in 2010. Neither the Washington nor Oregon legislatures will spend much time this year searching for hundreds of millions in construction dollars for the bridge.The crossing project will lose out on any first phase of economic stimulus package that Barack Obama wants to sign shortly after becoming president on Jan. 20. The initial focus will be on “shovel ready” projects that can begin in 90 to 120 days.The project continues to face grass-roots opposition from environmentalists wary of perpetuating an automobile-based culture and commuters reluctant to pay $1,000 or more a year in bridge tolls. For many of these people, this is simply the wrong project in the wrong place at the wrong time.Budget cuts
Schools have been struggling to balance their books for years, but the 2009-11 biennium may deliver a blow. Gov. Chris Gregoire’s proposed budget includes $1.1 billion in cuts to education. Savings would come from pensions, salaries and professional development. Gregoire’s office also proposes cutting 21 percent of Initiative 728 dollars and programs, such as a bilingual pilot, a civics curriculum pilot, math helping corps and reading corps. Universities would be allowed to raise tuition for resident undergraduate students. They are being asked to plan to cut 13 percent of their total budgets. Community colleges would cut less, 6 percent, “in recognition of their unique mission in job training and skills development essential to the state’s economic recovery,” an Office of Financial Management report stated.At the state schools office in Olympia, spokesman Nathan Olson said school district officials trimmed the fat years ago and may have to cut where it hurts.Olson said no one knows what next fall may look like but said to expect larger classes, changed bus routes and less money for professional development. And school may be trimmed to 1,000 hours, he said. The state mandates 180 days and 1,000 hours, which averages out to about 5.5 hours a day. Clark County districts have longer school days, about six hours. Evergreen Public Schools chief financial officer Mike Merlino used starker terms. “I’ve been doing this for 20 years, and there’s been nothing like this,” Merlino said. “I don’t think people understand how big a number, how widespread — it’s a big number. We’re hopeful there might be something that we’re unaware of.”County power shift
A new board of Clark County commissioners is like a new baby: The first few months matter the most.And with county’s dominant politician, Democrat Betty Sue Morris, in retirement, the balance of power on the three-person board will be up for grabs.On issues like sprawl, business regulation, gambling and taxes, Morris’ successor, Republican Tom Mielke, is clearly to her right. This year, he could vote to:n Reduce minimum lot sizes in rural areas.n Shift the costs of growth regulation from developers to the public.n Kill a deal with the Cowlitz Indian Tribe to share profits from a new casino.n Block a clean-water fee hike.Just as important, watch how Republican Marc Boldt votes. An ideological ally of Mielke who has built a personal friendship with Democrat Steve Stuart, Boldt may discover he is the crucial swing vote and has more power if his votes are unpredictable.Cowlitz casino
Two years ago, The Columbian wrote a front-page Sunday story questioning if 2007 would be the pivotal year when the federal government gives the Cowlitz Indian Tribe a yes-no answer.But no decision came in 2007. Or in 2008, for that matter.Federal officials should finish their work on the casino proposal this year, but it’s not clear if the Obama administration will simply sign off on the project or require a full review of work done by Bush appointees.Phil Harju, the tribe’s vice chairman, said he expects the federal government will approve his tribe’s proposal in 2009, but he’s not sure when.“It depends on how long it takes to approve the secretary of Interior,” he said. “My guess is that all those political appointees will have to be in place.”Obama has nominated U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar, D-Colo., as Interior secretary. News reports indicate the president-elect intends to appoint Wizipan Garriott, a member of the Rosebud Sioux Tribe, to a newly created post of “First Americans Public Liaison.”If the federal government approves the Cowlitz Tribe’s application, it almost certainly will trigger litigation, along with the need for the tribe and its backers to line up financing for a $510 million project to be built in phases.If credit markets remain tight, finding financing might be more difficult than it has been.“There is some financing available out there,” Harju said. “But until we get a record of decision and a point where we can discuss a concrete proposal, it’s difficult to answer that.”Cami Joner, Isolde Raftery and Michael Andersen of The Columbian contributed to this report.
Money will be the common denominator for major issues
Wednesday, December 31 8:15 p.m.
BY JEFFREY MIZECOLUMBIAN STAFF WRITER
Work continues on “Michaelsen,” a housing development being built by Manor Homes off Northwest 116th Street. Construction started after 10 of the 14 homes in the development were sold. (Zachary Kaufman/The Columbian)
One common denominator will shape Clark County’s top stories for 2009: money.-- Housing markets will struggle to rebound from the worst year in memory.-- State agencies, schools and cities will cope with the sting of budget cuts.-- Big-ticket projects, including the Columbia River Crossing, will scramble to refine financial plans.With unemployment and foreclosures rising and credit markets and consumer spending tanking, the pursuit of the almighty dollar will be front and center in 2009.Many of these big stories will continue to unfold in 2009 without final resolution. For example, work on replacing the Interstate 5 Bridge has been under way for much of this decade, but no one expects a final plan, complete with dedicated funding, to be sewn up by the end of this year.With that in mind, here’s a look at what to expect in 2009:Housing market
Real estate agents, homeowners with adjustable mortgages and others would just as soon forget 2008. Will 2009 bring a rebound or more misery? Is the worst is still to come? Home sales fell 33.3 percent in 2008, a year when prices dropped and foreclosures increased. But some real estate experts say there is hope for home sellers as buyers begin whittling away at the housing stockpile.“I am hopeful that by mid-2009, we’ll see some definite signs of improvement,” said Sandy Hendrick, executive director of the Clark County Association of Realtors.Hendrick expects softening home prices and abundant selection to rev up the local home-selling scene, a jump start that others say will be helped along by low interest rates on mortgages and a $7,500 federal tax write-off being offered to first-time buyers who purchase homes before July 1, 2009.“It looks like the government is going to stimulate refinancing and purchasing,” said Kerry Greenwald, owner of Creekside Mortgage in Vancouver.“If you can borrow money at 4.5 percent and get the government incentive, buying begins to look attractive,” Greenwald said. He also expects 2009 to be a banner year for mortgage refinancing.National reports caution that the optimism of real estate experts could be premature, given the country’s deepening recession and mounting job losses.Bridge planning
Last year was a big milestone for the multiyear process toward easing chronic congestion for trucks and commuters, with local governments on both sides of the Columbia River signing onto a plan to replace the aging I-5 Bridge and bring light rail to Vancouver.This will be a year of refinement, with bridge planners working to pin down the number of lanes, the design of the bridge and any architectural flourishes that might ease apprehension of those who see the current proposal as overly utilitarian, entirely unimaginative or just plain ugly.Bridge experts also will sharpen a whole series of financial issues, re-examining construction costs and refining tolling scenarios and working with state and federal officials who will need to finance a large portion of a project expected to cost anywhere from $3.5 billion to $4.2 billion.The big decisions on tolling and financing are still a year or more away. A federal record of decision, a bureaucratic blessing of the project, isn’t expected until sometime in 2010. Neither the Washington nor Oregon legislatures will spend much time this year searching for hundreds of millions in construction dollars for the bridge.The crossing project will lose out on any first phase of economic stimulus package that Barack Obama wants to sign shortly after becoming president on Jan. 20. The initial focus will be on “shovel ready” projects that can begin in 90 to 120 days.The project continues to face grass-roots opposition from environmentalists wary of perpetuating an automobile-based culture and commuters reluctant to pay $1,000 or more a year in bridge tolls. For many of these people, this is simply the wrong project in the wrong place at the wrong time.Budget cuts
Schools have been struggling to balance their books for years, but the 2009-11 biennium may deliver a blow. Gov. Chris Gregoire’s proposed budget includes $1.1 billion in cuts to education. Savings would come from pensions, salaries and professional development. Gregoire’s office also proposes cutting 21 percent of Initiative 728 dollars and programs, such as a bilingual pilot, a civics curriculum pilot, math helping corps and reading corps. Universities would be allowed to raise tuition for resident undergraduate students. They are being asked to plan to cut 13 percent of their total budgets. Community colleges would cut less, 6 percent, “in recognition of their unique mission in job training and skills development essential to the state’s economic recovery,” an Office of Financial Management report stated.At the state schools office in Olympia, spokesman Nathan Olson said school district officials trimmed the fat years ago and may have to cut where it hurts.Olson said no one knows what next fall may look like but said to expect larger classes, changed bus routes and less money for professional development. And school may be trimmed to 1,000 hours, he said. The state mandates 180 days and 1,000 hours, which averages out to about 5.5 hours a day. Clark County districts have longer school days, about six hours. Evergreen Public Schools chief financial officer Mike Merlino used starker terms. “I’ve been doing this for 20 years, and there’s been nothing like this,” Merlino said. “I don’t think people understand how big a number, how widespread — it’s a big number. We’re hopeful there might be something that we’re unaware of.”County power shift
A new board of Clark County commissioners is like a new baby: The first few months matter the most.And with county’s dominant politician, Democrat Betty Sue Morris, in retirement, the balance of power on the three-person board will be up for grabs.On issues like sprawl, business regulation, gambling and taxes, Morris’ successor, Republican Tom Mielke, is clearly to her right. This year, he could vote to:n Reduce minimum lot sizes in rural areas.n Shift the costs of growth regulation from developers to the public.n Kill a deal with the Cowlitz Indian Tribe to share profits from a new casino.n Block a clean-water fee hike.Just as important, watch how Republican Marc Boldt votes. An ideological ally of Mielke who has built a personal friendship with Democrat Steve Stuart, Boldt may discover he is the crucial swing vote and has more power if his votes are unpredictable.Cowlitz casino
Two years ago, The Columbian wrote a front-page Sunday story questioning if 2007 would be the pivotal year when the federal government gives the Cowlitz Indian Tribe a yes-no answer.But no decision came in 2007. Or in 2008, for that matter.Federal officials should finish their work on the casino proposal this year, but it’s not clear if the Obama administration will simply sign off on the project or require a full review of work done by Bush appointees.Phil Harju, the tribe’s vice chairman, said he expects the federal government will approve his tribe’s proposal in 2009, but he’s not sure when.“It depends on how long it takes to approve the secretary of Interior,” he said. “My guess is that all those political appointees will have to be in place.”Obama has nominated U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar, D-Colo., as Interior secretary. News reports indicate the president-elect intends to appoint Wizipan Garriott, a member of the Rosebud Sioux Tribe, to a newly created post of “First Americans Public Liaison.”If the federal government approves the Cowlitz Tribe’s application, it almost certainly will trigger litigation, along with the need for the tribe and its backers to line up financing for a $510 million project to be built in phases.If credit markets remain tight, finding financing might be more difficult than it has been.“There is some financing available out there,” Harju said. “But until we get a record of decision and a point where we can discuss a concrete proposal, it’s difficult to answer that.”Cami Joner, Isolde Raftery and Michael Andersen of The Columbian contributed to this report.
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